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Regression Fallacy

November 8th, 2009

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Regression Fallacy

classification : informal – non causa pro causa

With this, therefore because of this.
It ascribes cause where none exists. The flaw is failing to account for natural fluctuations.

Foundations

The Regression Fallacy is the result of a statistical phenomenon known as “regression to the mean”. The “mean” refers to the arithmetical average of some variable in a population, that is, the “mean” is what we usually mean by “average”. “Regression” refers to the value of the variable tending to move closer to the mean, away from extreme values. So, “regression to the mean” refers to the tendency of a variable characteristic in a population to move away from the extreme values towards the average value.

Examples

The frequency of accidents on a road fell after a speed camera was installed. Therefore, the speed camera has improved road safety.

Categories: Logic
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