Regression Fallacy
Regression Fallacy
classification : informal – non causa pro causa
With this, therefore because of this.
It ascribes cause where none exists. The flaw is failing to account for natural fluctuations.
Foundations
The Regression Fallacy is the result of a statistical phenomenon known as “regression to the mean”. The “mean” refers to the arithmetical average of some variable in a population, that is, the “mean” is what we usually mean by “average”. “Regression” refers to the value of the variable tending to move closer to the mean, away from extreme values. So, “regression to the mean” refers to the tendency of a variable characteristic in a population to move away from the extreme values towards the average value.
Examples
The frequency of accidents on a road fell after a speed camera was installed. Therefore, the speed camera has improved road safety.
© 2009, jhslee. All rights reserved.
